The question in many people's minds is what impact will Greece election have on the Europe region and the whole world?
First of all, let's break it down simply for people to understand why a small country's election got to do with everyone.
Greece has 2 major parties now... right-wing New Democracy and left-wing Syriza.
They are at odds over whether broadly to stick with the tough EU bailout deal (right wing), or reject it and boost social spending (left wing)
The main concern now is that if the hard-left bailout-denouncing Syriza party wins, it could set off a cataclysm in the markets, a chain reaction that would set neighbors and then the whole world on fire - similar to the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy incident.
The possible result?
A Long, Slow Exit It Would Be (adapted from http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/sunday-greece-elections-prove-lehman-brothers-moment-maybe-172918499.html )
- This Sunday's elections are unlikely to prove a similar event.
Whatever the result, given Greece's parliamentary system, it will take several days to sort out who will run the government and which policies will prevail. It's even possible that no clear result will emerge, as was the case after the last election. That's a process that will take place over a series of weeks and months, not instantaneously.
Large banks that have substantial exposure to Europe have been doing tests to see if important functions like moving money for clients between nations could handle a country leaving the euro.
And even assuming that's the end result, there will be all sorts of feints, brinksmanship, negotiations and false solutions before then. -> Forex players take care!
- A second important difference between Lehman and Greece is the relative component of surprise.
Lehman was thought to be a safe investment in the months before its collapse. In fact, its debt still carried in investment-grade rating when it went bust. That's part of what made the fallout so toxic. If Lehman, heretofore thought to be a safe harbor in a storm, wasn't safe, then who else was?
But nobody has thought Greece is a safe place to invest for years. Even after the bailouts and the debt write-downs, Greece's bonds trade at highly distressed levels. How many conservative savers and companies do you know that have their money in funds that contain Greek bonds? To a large degree, markets and investors have been discounting and anticipating the failure of Greece's government to meet its financial obligations.
- After being largely unprepared for the 2008 crisis, large banks in the United States & London are determined & have been taking measures to deal with instability in Europe for over a year.
The banks are on high alert. Hundreds of employees at big firms, some part of special teams, will be on standby this Sunday, awaiting the results of Greece’s pivotal election. They are preparing for the worst case. The fear is that the vote will heighten the chances of Greece exiting the euro and the global financial system will be shaken when the markets open on Monday.
Large banks that have substantial exposure to Europe have been doing tests to see if important functions like moving money for clients between nations could handle a country leaving the euro.
If the Greek elections prompt market instability, banks are likely to have another source of support, perhaps overshadowing any of their own efforts to date. In a period of severe weakness, central banks will most likely step in and provide cheap loans to bolster the financial system.
My Opinion
All in all, i believe that the end result is not clear and Greece is just a preview glimpse of what the Euro region can do to the entire world and the steps that can be taken to resolve them. And all these information i put up here is not to suggest that we should shrug off the election results like they didn't matter.
I personally think that Europe woes have finally started to unfold and that may prompt more action from the Europe leaders where in the past; Europe's political, financial and monetary leadership has displayed that they are dilly-dally and only want solutions to their own benefits.
New democracy won! European leaders and everyone can heave a sigh of relief that no Lehman-like incident will happen again..
ReplyDeleteGreece is a condemn case. Market sort of given up on this country. It is bankrupt. What matters most is how strong is so-called firewall in protecting the contagion from spreading to Spain,Italy and France. This effort in building a firewall is hindered by Germany's unwillingness to come up with more money.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, i feel they should just let all the countries who are unable to pay for themselves go bankrupt and suffer a one time good one..
ReplyDeleteRather than suffer for years to come.. slow and painful experience..
I would suggest that you use the ultimate Forex broker: AvaTrade.
ReplyDelete