An Interesting Read from the Good Technician - Jeff Clark

The Market Is Waving a Caution Flag
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
History repeats itself in the stock market. The S&P 500 is doing the same thing today that it did in 2011. And that's a bad sign for the short term.

Stocks have started the year in "rally mode." The S&P 500 is up 8% so far this year. And despite numerous technical indicators flashing warning signs, the momentum just keeps powering stock prices higher.

We saw the same action last year. You can go look at my Growth Stock Wire essays from last February to see what I'm talking about. There were caution signs everywhere… But the market just ignored them – for a while, at least…

Everything I wrote back then leaned bearish. A correction was coming. Stocks were set up for a quick, hard decline. Anyone with too much exposure to the stock market was going to feel the pain.

Day after day, stocks would continue to float higher. And day after day, I would pound my forehead on my desk and wonder why all my proven technical indicators that had worked so well before seemed to have lost their magic.

Then… during the first two weeks of March, the S&P 500 lost 8%. Stocks gave up all their gains for the year… and the S&P 500 traded right back down to where it started in January.

I was reminded of this yesterday when I looked in the mirror and noticed a bruise forming on my forehead. A few hours earlier, I had pounded my forehead on my desk as the S&P 500 defied gravity and made another new high for the year… despite multiple warning signs from the Volatility Index, Summation Indexes, sentiment indicators, and many other technical indicators.

Just about every indicator I follow is waving the "caution" flag. Yet price action is undeniably bullish.

For a trader, there really isn't anything to do here. This is one of those times where the sidelines look like the most comfortable place to be. Stocks are far too extended and there's just too much risk to be overly exposed to the long side of the stock market. But the momentum and price action are too strong to justify aggressive short positions.

The best strategy is to wait for the market to play out the same script from last year. A 5%-8% decline will be enough to relieve most of the overbought conditions and eliminate the "warning" signs on most of the technical indicators. And it'll set the stage for a late spring-time rally to new yearly highs on the major stock indexes… Just like what happened last year.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark


Warren Buffett gone Totally Wrong... Twice!

Who says the richest Investor - warren buffett is always correct?

Here is the recent news where he made a wrong bet and may even get Nothing back from his $2 Billion investment!http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/27/even-buffett-is-hurting-from-low-natural-gas-prices/?__lsa=c5983af1

Read about that article and the lesson you can learn from this is to understand the underlying business fundamentals of your investments.

What Buffett has done correctly in his most profitable investments e.g. Coca-cola, P&G, Washington Post etc.. is that these are consumer durables products... easy to understand, you just need to wait for the time to purchase them at Cheap Prices [undervalued]!

What Buffett has done wrong is that for his two mistakes:

1) buying ConocoPhillips stock near the peak of an energy boom
Lesson learnt: you need to know how Energy prices move and how they affect the exploration or pricing of the oil -> basic product the company is selling!

2) bought about US$2-billion in bonds of power company Energy Future Holdings Corp., said the investment is at risk of losing all its value after natural gas prices fell.
Lesson learnt: you need to know how Natural prices move and how they affect the exploration or pricing of the natural gas -> basic product the company is selling!

Thus, a wise thing to do is still to invest in what you are familiar with. If you look at hindsight, you will always say "Aiya, why i didn't buy this stock and now it has risen by so much." Instead, buy something safe & profit with ease, all with a simple understanding of what you are familiar/knowledgeable about :) 

Nevertheless, Warren Buffett is still my idol as he built his entire BILLIONAIRE [$_$] wealth through frugality and investing it for compounding returns. Everyone make mistakes through the path of investing and so does people at the top. Most importantly, learn from your mistakes and improve every-time; sooner or later, you will reach the top :)


Short-Sell Alert - Coscocorp 23/2/2012

Just a quick one as the night is late...

Coscocorp... the so-called biggest shipyard in China but listing in Singapore...

However, if you take a comparison of how its stock price fares against its closer and much more efficient competitor - Yangzhijiang, you will realise how coscocorp doesn't live up to its reputation.

Furthermore, take a look at its dismayed reports just released today... leading to a sharp selldown of nearly 5%.

Despite an increase in Debt [sorry i accidentally deleted the top heading of the year], look at Borrowings from 555,148 to 1668,322 (300% INCREASE IN BORROWINGS!) and they still raked in a loss of 44% in Net Profit!

They have highlighted its all due to the higher raw materials and costs etc.. However, why is it that other firms like Yangzhijiang can perform much better than them? It boils down to the internal problems in Coscocorp and management team, in short, CMI.

Following the major turn in the stock markets outlook now, I have capitalized on the downtrend & taken a Short-Sell position on Coscocorp at the price of $1.225. Hope it works out! :D


STI breaks below 3000 Support Line -> Sell Everything!

Why No Rally After the Greek Deal?

Haven't you thought of why isn't there any Rally after the 
2nd (and final?) Greek bailout deal is in place.... BUT worse still, US markets had a fairly breakeven finish and Asian markets are going down?!

Where is the rally and ticker tape parade you ask?

In short, we already enjoyed that rally over the last two months. Take a look at the STI Index chart below.

Remember that the stock market is always forward looking. So the completion of this deal was fully expected and already baked into stock prices. 

Furthermore, stock markets have already risen by >20% just in 2 months!

The Steam cannot keep continuing without letting out some air isn't it?

Thus, based on the normal reaction, the subsequent trend will be Downwards. [This is especially so after the STI Index breaks through the critical 3,000 point support and lost nearly 1% in a single day]

Bloodshed is going to come... i have sold ALL my holdings today. Have you?

Speaking of which, the prospects are good in the medium to long run. 

Yes, there are concerns about Greece not being able to follow the strict austerity rules. And yes, they might go through an elongated recession or depression. However, the situation in Europe is better than before and this deal buys time to continue to heal the problems with bigger nations like Italy and Spain. In addition, both nations are seeing their bond rates go down which is a sign that things are on the mend.

Thus, in conclusion, There will be ripe, value stocks to be picked up once again after the dust settles. I will be there in time, you can join me together to make stunning profits if you keep track of my blog and facebook from now on! :) 


Is There A HOLY GRAIL To Make Consistent Profits?

In this enlightening post, i would like to honor my past senior in my SIM investment club. He is a very knowledgeable FX investor and has won many prestigious competitions before. He is humble and affable too. Most importantly, i think this article will benefit many people greatly. So here goes: 
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”
- Jesse Livermore (legendary stock trader)
These days when you browse through our local newspaper you will find a lot of advertisement for a ‘free preview’ to a three day financial trading course. The advertisements often cite how their graduates using their strategies make an income of thousands of dollars consistently every month from trading, sometimes even more than ten thousand dollars in a single month. When you attend these free previews, the advertisers will show you historical charts and try to convince you how easy it is to make profits using their system, a key part of their system consistent of technical analysis. You often have to pay S$3000 or more to attend a three day course to learn their system.

Many people will wonder if these advertisements are real. If you were to pay for the three day course, can you duplicate the results of what they claimed on the advertisement, making thousands of dollars consistently every month just from trading? Is there a ‘Holy Grail” to make consistent profits?

Personally, after two years of trading in the foreign exchange market primarily using technical analysis, I believe that even if these systems were to have an edge over the market and is able to produce consistent profits over a certain sample size of trades, a substantial portion of the people who attended the course will not be able to duplicate the same positive results. This is because trading with real money involves very intense emotions like fear, hope and greed. To make consistent profits every month requires a strong emotional/psychological control and a very high level of discipline to maintain a very strict risk and money management rules. Even though the three day advertised courses do teach the psychology of trading, discipline and risk management, the majority of people who are new to trading may not be able to condition their minds with the required discipline and psychology needed to become a consistently profitable trader.
It is very widely quoted that 95% of all Forex traders are losing money, I find the statement to be very true due to the reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph. Jack Schwager, who wrote the “Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders” series, interviewed many top performing investors, traders and fund managers. Most of the top traders interviewed said that discipline is the most important tool that they possessed; they did not give much credit in their trading system. Whereas in the case of the advertiser trying to sell their three day courses for thousands of dollars, the highlight is often on their trading system.
I believe that there is no holy grail to making consistent profits. To become a consistently profitable trader, much effort must be exerted to develop the metal conditioning, correct trading psychology and a very high level of discipline in risk/money management. A trading system would be secondary if you already have the attributes mentioned above.
Characteristics of an Unprofitable Trader:
  1. Wants to make big money fast
  2. Are not bothered to develop a proper trading plan or rules.
  3. Keeps changing systems or technical indicators hoping to find a holy grail
  4. Addicted to the thrills and excitement of trading
  5. Does not have the discipline to follow a risk management plan.
  6. Does not adhere to any money management rule.
  7. Makes trading decision based on emotions.
  8. Believes that high frequency trading equal a higher change of winning
  9. Do not try to develop the correct trading psychology
  10. Abuse the use of high leverage
A Trader Who Has Good Chance at Success Has the Following Characteristics:
  1. Is properly capitalized
  2. Treats trading like a business
  3. Has a low tolerance for risk
  4. Trades only when the market provides an opportunity
  5. Can control emotions
  6. Has a trading plan
  7. Has a risk management plan
  8. Is incredibly disciplined
  9. Is focused
  10. Has backtested his trading methodology

Written by:

Liu Weimin
SIM’s Investment & Networking Club
I.T. & Research Director (Academic Year 2009/2010)

Top 17 Popular Investment Quotes of All Time

Let us look at what experts have said over the years on the topic of investing. The quotes date back to Ben Franklin, and some are from modern pundits like Dave Ramsey and Warren Buffett. Though markets may change, good investing advice is timeless.

1. "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin
When it comes to investing, nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. Do the necessary research, study and analysis before making any investment decisions.

2. "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers
While 10-15 year lows are not common, they do happen. During these down times, don't be shy about going against the trend and investing; you could make a fortune by making a bold move - or lose your shirt. Remember quote #1 and invest in an industry you've researched thoroughly. Then, be prepared to see your investment sink lower before it turns around and starts to pay off.

3. "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Be prepared to invest in a down market and to "get out" in a soaring market.

4. "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher
Another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion.

5. "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." - Robert Arnott
At times, you will have to step out of your comfort zone to realize significant gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone and practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping ship? Or getting out during the biggest rally of the century? There's no room for pride in this kind of self-analysis. The best investment strategy can turn into the worst if you don't have the stomach to see it through.

6. "How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen
Though investing in a savings account is a sure bet, your gains will be minimal given the extremely low interest rates. But don't forgo one completely. A savings account is a reliable place for an emergency fund, whereas a market investment is not.

7. "Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth." - Paul Clitheroe
We all want wealth, but how do we achieve it? It starts with a successful career which relies on your skills and talents. Invest in yourself through school, books, or a quality job where you can acquire a quality skill set. Identify your talents and find a way to turn them into an income-generating vehicle. In doing so, you can truly leverage your career into an "engine of your wealth."

8. "Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away." - Jim Cramer
There are no sure bets in the world of investing; there is risk in everything. Be prepared for the ups and downs.

9. "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." - Ben Graham
You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.

10. "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." - Robert Kiyosaki
If you're a millionaire by the time you're 30, but blow it all by age 40, you've gained nothing. Grow and protect your investment portfolio by carefully diversifying it, and you may find yourself funding many generations to come.

11. "Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch
Do your homework before making a decision. And once you've made a decision, make sure to re-evaluate your portfolio on a timely basis. A wise holding today may not be a wise holding in the future.

12. "Financial peace isn't the acquisition of stuff. It's learning to live on less than you make, so you can give money back and have money to invest. You can't win until you do this." - Dave Ramsey
By being modest in your spending, you can ensure you will have enough for retirement and can give back to the community as well.

13. "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." - Paul Samuelson
If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting!

14. "I would not pre-pay. I would invest instead and let the investments cover it." - Dave Ramsey
A perfect answer to the question: "Should I pay off my _____(fill in the blank) or invest for retirement?" That said, a credit card balance ringing up 30% can turn into a black hole if not paid off quickly. Basically, pay off debt at high interest rates and keep debt at low ones.

15. "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
Follow market trends and history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. For example, a major key to investing in a particular stock or bond fund is its performance over five years. Nothing shorter.

16. "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." - Warren Buffett
In the beginning, diversification is relevant. Once you've gotten your feet wet and have confidence in your investments, you can adjust your portfolio accordingly and make bigger bets.

17. "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - Peter Lynch
When hit with recessions or declines, you must stay the course. Economies are cyclical, and the markets have shown that they will recover. Make sure you are a part of those recoveries!

The Bottom Line
The world of investing can be cold and hard. But if you do thorough research and keep your head on straight, your chances of long-term success are good. Refer back to these quotes when you're feeling shaky or are confused about investing. They are timeless because the markets never change due to people's emotions - Greed and Fear. Sometimes a few quotes you remember can help you well especially when you are about to make major investment decisions for yourself.

Adapted from Investopedia By David Bakke
Edited by James (K.I.S.S. Investor)

Owning a Car in S'pore

First & Foremost, this article may be too long for you to digest all at one go. However, it's quite a comprehensive approach for serious car buyers or thinking about a car.

Buying a car in Singapore isn't cheap, especially because of the COE (Certificate of Entitlement). It's different from buying a house where the house is an asset; and its price can continue to increase due to inflation & the shortage of land in Singapore but a car is a depreciating Liability - they always say Car Prices drop by 50% straightaway once it's out of the showroom!!!

So why do everyone wants a car when it is so costly and is a big burden on your own pockets?
Many people will say that a car is for convenience or for symbol status. However, have you really calculated the costs involved and whether its worthy of the so-called "convenience" if you are barely making month's end trying to meet the car expenses!?

Let me tabulate and analyse it for you before whether you think it is really worthwhile for you. Here is an illustration of different expenses that is related to an automobile:

*The above is taken from the US site, however, the type of charges are around the same.

The rule of thumb is that your cost of ownership of your automobile as a percentage of disposable income should not be more than 30%. 

In general, buying a new car involves the following: upfront costs, fixed costs and usage costs. Let's take a look at what is the  you have to pay for your Car.

A car's costs consists of 3 types (Upfront, Fixed, Usage), and largely depend on the type of car you get & how frequent you use it etc. Therefore, I have provided the links beside each cost so you can amend it to calculate your own car expenses using this Car Ownership Calculator (click the link)!

1) Upfront costs

When buying a new car, upfront costs would be:

• Cost of car [depends on you: http://www.sgcarmart.com/main/index.php]
• COE [http://www.onemotoring.com.sg/1m/coe/coeDetail.html]
• Custom duty – 20% of OMV
• GST – 5% of custom duty + OMV
• Registration fee (RF) – $140
• Vehicle plate registration – $30

2) Fixed costs

Besides the initial outlay to acquire a vehicle, fixed costs are also incurred:

• Monthly instalments [usually car loan is 3% but Beware of Banks' "Rule of 78" ... find out more here."
• Road tax [http://cars.st701.com/articles/view/3615]
• Car insurance [Around $100, i recommend that you can go directasia.com for a car loan if you have at least 2 years' driving experience and is aged between 25 and 65.] Otherwise.. you can go for http://www.sgcarmart.com/directory/insurance.php
• Season parking [Usually $90.. can check here: http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10327p.nsf/w/CarPark1NewSP?OpenDocument]

These costs are payable regardless of how often you use your vehicle, or not all.

Monthly instalments and subsequent prevailing interest rates vary according to the loan amount and repayment period. As a rule of thumb, it is best to minimise borrowing and keep to the shortest repayment duration possible to avoid paying more interest.

Road tax is computed based on the vehicle’s engine capacity, and is renewed on a six-monthly or annual basis. Evidently, the more powerful your vehicle, the costlier the road tax.

Third-party motor insurance is compulsory when registering a car in Singapore. Its purpose is to ensure that innocent parties are protected in event of accidents. You may also opt for comprehensive coverage – at a higher premium, of course.

Unless you live on private property, season parking at HDB multi-storey car parks sets you back $90 a month, while parking in the central business district averages about $200 a month. Including parking charges incurred at other payable locations, it all adds up to over $300 each month!

3) Usage costs

• Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) [usually $50?]
• Parking [higher parking fees in shopping malls & CBD area: $300]
• Fuel [lets assume its $250. visit http://www.petrolwatch.com.sg/ for discounts on your petrol top-up!]
• Maintenance including tyre change, washing etc... [normally $80]

There are now more and more ERP gantries across Singapore, operation hours have been extended – even on Saturdays for Orchard Road – and toll prices have also risen over the years.

Soaring oil prices are also pushing up pump prices despite the EURO debt crisis. As the debate rages on about Man’s over reliance on oil, it seems likely that fuel prices will continue to rise in the years ahead.

Usage results in wear and tear, thus maintenance costs are inevitable. However, new cars often come with limited free servicing, often up to 50,000 km. Thereafter, maintenance costs will be wholly borne by the car owner.

To reiterate, a car's expenses largely depend on the type of car you get & how frequent you use it etc. Thus, it is only served as a guide, you would need to calculate your own car costs.

After going through all these.... To buy, or Not to buy?

With the heavy costs involved, it is advisable to think twice before committing to a vehicle.

John Chong, 24, who recently bought a Volkswagen Caddy, acknowledges that the convenience of having your own vehicle comes with its share of sacrifices.

He started moonlighting – as a private tutor – in order to pay for the vehicle more comfortably. Still, he feels that the trade-offs are worth it, as he no longer had to wake up at the crack of dawn to journey from his Tampines home to his workplace in Bukit Batok.

Likewise, Kevin Wong, 27, recently took advantage of the low COE prices and bought a Toyota Corolla Altis. Travelling from Kembangan to his office in Tuas on public transport proves too taxing for the sales executive.

“Besides, parking is free at my office, and I travel outside of ERP operation hours anyway,” he says. He also saves on season parking as he lives on landed property.

Others however, do not see the need for a car. Cassandra Fong, 30, says while she can afford a car “very comfortably”, she takes the MRT from Seng Kang to her City Hall office instead.

“Singapore is so well-connected, and I don’t have to worry about parking or getting stuck in traffic,” The globe-trotter prefers to use the money for her annual vacations instead.
“Besides”, she adds, “with so many friends that drive, why do I need my own car?”

Need or want?

Singapore’s public transport infrastructure is arguably one of the best in the world, with an expanding rail network, comprehensive bus routes and a fleet of 22,000 taxis. New towns are linked by Light Rail Transit (LRT) services, and the upcoming Circle Line looks set to cut down traveling time further.

The question then, is car ownership really a need or a want? Consider that the following – cheaper – alternatives to driving are available:

• Second-hand cars: 2% transfer fee, save on RF and ARF
• Off-peak cars: $17,000 rebate and $800 off road tax
• ‘Green’ cars: Green Vehicle Rebate – 40% off OMV,
but cost of car itself is higher
• Car-pools: rides from colleagues / family & friends
• Car-sharing: pay-as-you-use schemes offered by
NTUC Car Co-Op, City Speed etc.
• Motorcycles: costs are a fraction of a car’s


ARF – Additional Registration Fee.
Computed as 110% of the car’s OMV. Have been reduced from 130% since 2004, contributing to the lower upfront costs of car ownership today.

COE – Certificate of Entitlement
A quota system implemented to curb vehicle population. Winning bidders pay the lowest successful bid price, also known as the quota premium (QP).

OMV – Open Market Value
Price of the car, comprising of account purchase price, freight, insurance and all other charges relating to the sale and delivery of the car from country of manufacture to Singapore. This value is assessed by the Singapore Customs.

RF – Registration Fee
A fixed sum of $140 for private motor vehicles. Payable for all new cars.

Road Tax
Payable on a 6-month or annual basis, road tax varies with your vehicle capacity.

The formulas are as follows:

Engine Capacity (EC) Road Tax Formula
600 cc S$400 (flat rate)
601 cc - 1,000 cc S$400 + 0.25 x (EC - 600)
1,001 cc - 1,600 cc S$500 + 0.75 x (EC - 1,000)
1,601 cc - 3,000 cc S$950 + 1.5 x (EC - 1,600)
more than 3,000 cc S$3,050 + 2.0 x (EC - 3,000)

Source: LTA’s One Motoring website

Hope that you enjoy the article I have shared and it's useful to you. I would appreciate any constructive comments on this article below. You can approach me for any personal finance consultation but kindly email me at Rulezinvestor@gmail.com first. Have a great day!

This post is last updated at 28/11/2011.

Yoma - Power Rally coming to an End?

In the recent weeks, Yoma has soared from a mere $0.08 to a maximum of $0.57 - An IMPRESSIVE Gain of 612.5% in just over 3 weeks!!!

What has propelled this stock to All New Time Highs and is this going to continue further? Let's take a clearer picture on its fundamentals + technical chart.

Clicking at http://www.yomastrategic.com Investor Relations to find out about its Financial Information has resulted in a DNS lookup failure. Clearly a Gray Area that the management should resolve to provide more light on the transparency of the firm and its financial results.

Nevertheless, we went to the newsroom in SGX and found out its Financial Highlights:

i) Revenue increased 141.5% to S$11.22 million
– Significant increase in sales of housing and LDRs as a result of favourable
market sentiments in the real estate sector in Myanmar

ii) Profit after tax attributable to shareholders recorded at S$2.79
– Largely due to fair value gain by WSI, an associated company

iii) Healthy balance sheet with cash & balances of S$2.8 million
– Generated S$1.1 million of cash from operations

Not really what people would like to see if they are paying for a $0.40+ per share...

Chart shows that Yoma is going downtrend from now. A Long Bearish Engulfing Candle has capped the limit to where it can go and based on the reversal patterns and decreasing volume, this tells me that the price is probably going for a consolidation or even go lower.

Chances are, people are going to wake up realising that this ultimate bubble has run out of steam and go into a scurry to get rid of their existing holdings. Thus, it is a clear direction to Short Yoma, (you can probably do this intra-day... Naked Selling and Buying it back at end of day!)

Oceanus - Change of Senior Mgmt = Opportunity!?

Oceanus (http://www.oceanus.com.sg) - Holding company for Aquaculture production, processing and distribution. Focus is on Abalone... Yummy!

Why is it a good time to capitalise on Oceanus? Let's start off with the reason why it's Overly Sold now.

Oceanus stock price has been battered for quite a long time (3 Years!) since 28/9/2009... ok maybe 2 years +.
i) One part is due to the financial crisis that brought down its peak price of $0.45 to around $0.30 ending year 2010.
ii) The other more crucial part is .... *Drumroll Please* the DEATH of its Prized Jewels - Abalones.

Reason? *Extracted from the RESPONSE TO QUERIES FROM SGX-ST*

Q: The Company’s reply on the reasons for the high mortality rate – Why was quality feed unavailable?

A: According to Mr Yu De Hua, the out-going CEO of the Company, the Company has been primarily feeding the abalones with high quality seaweed which is very expensive during the period from May to November. In 2011, the number of abalones has increased, resulting in the exponential increment in its abalone feed cost.
Accordingly, to reduce such cost and to increase profit for the Company, the production team decided to significantly reduce the usage of high quality but expensive seaweed and opt for cheaper but lower quality seaweed to feed the abalones.
With the lower nutrient in the cheaper quality seaweed and the high water temperature during the summer season, immunity of the abalones was reduced significantly, thus resulting in high mortality rate of the abalones.

NOW the Good News.
  1. Oceanus has undergone a Re-composition of the Board of Directors and Change of Senior Management of PRC subsidiary.
  2. The current New CEO, Dr Ng, is confident that the company will return to the Black by 2013. And according to the announcement (http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_68DF2225BFE68787482579510058CF1E/$file/OGL_Annc_Response_to_SGX_queries.pdf?openelement)
    He will adopt massive actions to build up the population of good quality abalones for longer term harvest while the sales of abalone laggards and juveniles as well as sea cucumbers will provide short term cash flows.
  3. The News have seem to entice loads of speculators who are hopping on to the wagon and ride this momentum up. This can be seen below:

So there you go. A High Probability Trade where the Trend is just starting. Hit-n-Run begins at $0.087 and ends at $0.10. You can probably even hold it all the way till 2013 if you believe the management will do a good job!

The following is just for informative purposes, not a Recommendation. Please kindly read the Disclaimer here.


Sarin Technology - Leader in Diamond Machines

You may have heard of the Big Names like De Beers as the TOP diamond jewelry seller.. the south african companies digging the diamonds and selling them to the diamond jewelry retailers... But have you heard of the company producing the MACHINES to faciliate the Diamond production?

For a more detailed explanation to what Sarin Technology is, you can visit here.

I have read about Sarin before somewhere in the investment publications and did not really get into the idea of investing in it as it is an Israeli company listed in SGX. Big mistake i have done... I remembered that i once saw it last year at the price of $0.75 and went through the fundamentals. "Not Bad"... Sales and Net profit is growing healthily.

However, the volume supporting the stock was not strong and soon enough, i forgot about it.

Lets chuck it aside and talk more about it. First up, lets look at the chart and see how the stock price has soared!

Sexy.... isn't it?

It has also caught the attention of stock broker companies:

Recognition for this stock/company is growing strong and i expect it to continue for various reasons
  1. Established track record for innovation and strong brand name in Diamond Machinery Field
  2. Modular nature of its products enables customers to upgrade their existing products with additional functionality by simply upgrading the software of the machine
  3. Good Quality, Experienced Management Team etc...
  4. *Recurring* Income from Consistent Servicing!
However, i believe now is NOT the time to venture in yet as the stock has risen too fast too quickly. I will inform you again once the Stock Technical analysis is ready :D