18.10.12

Results of REIT Valuation Factors

Wow! It's pretty impressive that just within 2 days, this simple question has gathered quite a number of votes.


One enthusiastic reader has also written some other crucial factors which i would like to share with everyone too...

"Kian Jin Ow Yong · Answered Distribution Yield and 4 others
Other important factors :
(a) Strong sponsor
(b) Country, type (retail, office, residential, etc) and remaining lease of the property
(c) Lease renewal - evenly distributed?
(d) Currency risk
Most importantly(e) Credibility of the management (how do they raise funds? placement / rights / bonds? do they place the shareholders' interest at heart? do they raise bonds with high interest rate and only to insitutional investors? do they buy properties at high pice?)"

It's quite encouraged to see that people are investing their money in REITs, letting small money grow into big money $_$. It's much, much better than putting your hard earned money inside the bank only to erode it due to inflation.

Anyway, Saizen REIT has been on my radar nowadays for its Heavy discount over NAV & High Dividend Yield. I shall cover it next time... if you are interested you can either follow my blog through RSS or Facebook :)

16.10.12

How do you value REITs

In Singapore, many investors are quite conservative and prefer REITs because they offer a high distribution yield of at least 5% which i don't think you can find this rate anywhere in the markets for the liquidity and safe assurance it gives!

However, I would like to engage my readers on this question: "How do you value REITs"? I have included a facebook link below where you can share your answer and see how many people have the same idea as you!


REITs have risen quite a far bit over the past year and the dividend yield has naturally came down too. Share your thoughts on which circumstances you will take profits or still continue to hold on to them...


9.10.12

What you can learn from Major Investment Mistakes

One of my favorite quotes comes from Black Swan author Nassim Taleb: "People focus on role models; it is more effective to find antimodels -- people you don't want to resemble when you grow up."

It pays to learn from people's mistakes as much as from their successes. And boy, do investors ever make mistakes. In the 20 years ended Dec. 2010, the S&P 500 returned 9.1% a year, while the average investor earned just 3.8% a year, according to Dalbar. 


We buy high, sell low, mismanage risk, follow the crowd, and trade too much -- rarely with doubt, and always at our own expense.

What are investors thinking when they make mistakes? What's going through their heads? The frame of mind that guides the biggest investment fumbles might be best summed up with a list of famous last words below.


"I thought I was getting guaranteed high returns."
Everyone wants that, so no one will get it. Any legitimately "guaranteed" investment will attract so much money that returns will be pushed down to zero -- and negative after inflation. You aren't entitled to anything you're not willing to pay for.

"I want to get in now before I miss more of the upside."
One of the fastest roads to poor results. Buy businesses, not regrets.


"We've come up with a new way to mitigate risk."
A line invariably muttered before meltdowns, collapses, panics, and depressions. Overconfidence is a good alternative definition for "risk."

"We seek to enhance returns with leverage."
Alas, that leverage is seeking to enhance your humility. And it usually wins.

"My broker called and said he has a special opportunity."
Read the book Where are the Customers' Yachts? If you're strapped for time, reading only the title suffices.

"This company's moat is impenetrable."
Warren Buffett once noted: "30 years ago, Eastman Kodak's moat was just as wide as Coca-Cola's moat." Companies' competitive advantages can fall anywhere between weak and strong, but they're never impenetrable.

"It looked like easy money."
If it looked easy to you, it looked easy to millions of other investors who probably bought before you did and will get out before you do. The easier it feels, the harder it will end.

"There's very little downside risk."
Rule of thumb: Take what you think is your maximum downside risk and multiply it by five. Now you're closer to reality.

"Our model has a perfect track record."
The list of models, theories, and patterns that worked until they didn't is never-ending. Nothing can predict the future with certainty -- or even rough accuracy.

"This was a one-in-a-million event."
Maybe it was. Or maybe you severely miscalculated the odds. Reality is almost always the latter.

"Analysts are predicting high growth for years to come."
People wouldn't take these predictions seriously if they knew how bad most analysts' track records are -- and how minimal the punishment for being wrong is.


"My pension is guaranteed for life."
Tragically, I have a feeling millions of Americans will learn in the coming decades how fickle the word "guaranteed" can be.


"I follow the smart money."
The vast majority of professional investors underperform a basic market index. And you rarely know why they're making a certain investment in the first place. Is it a short-term bet? Is it a hedge on another investment? If you can't answer that, you're not following. You're being led.

"How can you argue with a bull market that's been going on for 10 years?"
Because all that tells us it that we're 10 years closer to the end of it than we were when it started.

"You can't afford not to own this stock."
As close as it gets to ringing a warning bell at the top of a bubble.

"There's too much uncertainty in the world to be investing right now."
As close as it gets to ringing an opportunity bell at the bottom of a bear market.

"I'm going to wait on the sidelines until there's more clarity."
The easiest way to ensure you'll miss the bulk of bull markets.

"I invest conservatively. I can't afford to take big risks."
A good sign that you're favouring investments that are riskier than you believe (cash eroding to inflation, bonds at record low rates today, real estate in 2006).

"I'm not concerned about valuation."
An easy motto to follow during bull markets; a humbling lesson to learn thereafter. At best, high valuations rob future returns. More often, they cause irreparable losses.

"I only look at the charts."
A line never said by any successful investor, ever. Investing is about buying good businesses and holding them for a long time. Everything else is Las Vegas without free drinks.

"My brother-in-law has made a killing in these stocks. It's time I jump in."
As Charlie Munger says: "Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy." What is tragic is taking risks you don't understand and buying assets at the top of bubbles only because you view investing as a competition with others, instead of a way to secure your own financial well-being.

"It's different this time."
A cliche among famous last words, but easily the most important. Risk will never be eliminated, growth will never be limitless, and markets are never fully efficient. When it comes to big, basic principles of investing, it's never different this time. This truth explains the majority of investment blunders.

Courts Asia IPO - The familiar furniture + electronics MEGAMALL!

Which company do you think of when you hear the word "furniture"?

For me... it's Courts, then Furniture mall, Vhive etc...

What about "Home electronics"?

For me... it's Courts, then Harvey Norman, Best Denki, Gain City etc...

We seldom hear of a familiar Household Brand Name IPO but here it is... THE
 



Details of IPO



i) Listing Price: $0.77 per share
ii) Courts is offering 178 million shares, of which 60 million are new shares.
iii) 4 cornerstone investors - JF Asset Management Ltd, New Silk Road Investment Pte Ltd, Target Asset Management Pte Ltd and Value Partners Hong Kong Ltd - which have taken up 44 percent of the IPO.


Details of Courts Asia Limited



Gauging on how they will be utilizing the proceeds (not fixing on the % of net profit they plan to give out as dividends); they are embarking on a growth path and aiming towards the Indonesia market.

Personally, i think that it will bode well for Courts for 2 reasons:
1) There is no major player in the Indonesia market (under-penetrated market) 
2) It has a large fast growing middle class => more demand for electrical, IT and furniture products


Courts Competitive Landscape

Courts operate in only 2 countries so far, Singapore and Malaysia. And surprisingly, they have provided the competitive landscape due to Euromonitor...



It's quite an interesting read... but i was tempted to go buy Challenger and Senheng instead due to the CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) though...
But i have to say Courts is doing not bad as opposed to other firms...


Courts Financial Statements






A few points to note:
  • Sales & Net Profit growing slowly but steadily
  • however, Net profit margin at only roughly 5.5%
  • EPS of 7.03 (after ipo) & Price of $0.77 signify => P/E ratio of 10.95
  • Trade Receivables & Payables at a significant Premium over Net Profit, and with their retained earnings only a mere $5m, they must utilize the IPO profits carefully. (A strong step = big risks)


Conclusion

If you would ask me, i think that Courts IPO is not bad... think of Maxi-cash IPO (ipo price debut at $0.35, now it's $0.44 range). More importantly, it has the Brand X factor in which many retail investors will likely rope in...

Especially when many investors now have the cash but are held back from investing in properties due to the new increased downpayment for private properties.

Nevertheless, remember to do your own research using the prospectus!

Hope you like my post and can do me a favour by "Like"-ing my facebook page at www.facebook.com/kissinvesting. Thanks & HUAT AH!

25.9.12

Comparison of Olam vs Wilmar

Recently, commodity stocks are in the limelight.. because it is continuously affected by the global turn of events...

I saw in hardwarezone that people are looking to buy into Wilmar.. and so i would like to give my second thoughts and compare Olam vs Wilmar...

WILMAR
Fundamentals

The cashflows, net profits are inconsistent and dividend yield is low at 1+% if you divide the dividend per share with the share price accordingly.



Another thing is the "Current Liabilities", which i highlighted up there. It's astonishing 11x of its Annual Net Profit! 

The Debt is part of the "Bank term loans/short term/pre-shipment loans/trust receipts/bill discounts" and part of it is used as pledge... but i don't see a clearer picture and would likely avoid it.

Technical

Wilmar seems to be still stuck in a consolidation phase and shows no sign of clear breakout towards the top. Discretion is the better part of valour here...

Let's look at Olam then...
OLAM
Fundamental

I am able to obtain Olam 10 years financial data from its website and it really open my eyes wide...



It's amazing to see how their sales has been so consistently increasing... and ROE at 21.3% annually!
Olam really looks like what Warren Buffett will invest in to me...

Technical

Olam is on a steady uptrend now... but current markets are facing a slight pull-back from the Europe Woes (germany not doing well, china + japan tensions grow blah blah blah...).

Despite all that, a good entry would be around $1.95 to $2 :)

So what do you think of my comparison of both Olam and Wilmar? Any comments is deeply appreciated and can allow more ideas to be shared around. :)


Hope you like my post and can do me a favour by "Like"-ing my facebook page at www.facebook.com/kissinvesting. Thanks & HUAT AH!

22.9.12

Recently Declared Dividends

Singapore investors are generally more conservative and prefer to go for safe and dividend paying stocks such as REITs. In addition, they like to DIY by following broker reports.

Thus, there is a broker report i have scanned through and find it relevant for all of you out there: Download it here -> http://www.mediafire.com/view/?lfa27dshmxhjjiu

As a kickstart, i believe you should scroll down to see the stocks by dividend yield. For your personal investment, you can look at stable companies paying rich dividend yield.

*Beware of companies having too high a dividend payout (%), they may be selling off assets and transferring the wealth to the shareholders via a special dividend. OR, they are paying too much dividends and their business is hard to cope with such a payout.



19.9.12

3 Simple Investing Lessons From Peter Lynch

I chanced upon a good article from Motley Fool and i am here to share with you all:

Just like my blog name [KISS Investing] suggests, investing can be Simple & Profitable.

Peter Lynch put together one of the greatest investing track records of all time, while serving as the portfolio manager of Fidelity's Magellan Fund. An ordinary investor who put $1,000 in the fund on the day Lynch took over would have had roughly $28,000 by the time Lynch stepped down 13 years later.
Despite those truly remarkable returns, Lynch was a passionate believer in the notion that the normal investor can pick stocks better than the average Wall Street professional. In fact, he argued that the retail investor had numerous advantages that might allow him or her to outperform both the experts and the market in general.

You need to do certain things
Lynch did not say, however, that it would be easy for retail investors to outperform. He believed they could do the job very well, but that they had to do certain things. Below are three simple lessons from Lynch that will assist ordinary investors in their quest to beat the market:

1. Do the work. 
Peter Lynch is very well known, of course, for recommending that investors "buy what they know." According to this principle, investors may want to invest in that busy restaurant on the corner that always seems crowded on Friday night.
Perhaps less well-known about Lynch is that he expected investors to understand their businesses before putting their money in them. In his classic book One Up On Wall Street, he recommended that you should "never invest in any company before you've done the homework on the company's earnings prospects, financial condition, competitive position, plans for expansion, and so forth."
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) provides a great example here, I think. Many of us are dedicated users of the online retailer, so why wouldn't we want to invest our money in the company as well? Before doing so, however, investors might want to know why the company's profit margins are so low, and how the company intends to increase those margins over time. Finally, investors should feel comfortable with Amazon's valuation too before buying shares in it.
Lynch was an indefatigable worker himself, who felt that -- borrowing from Edison – "investing is ninety-nine percent perspiration." In general, he believed that you need to "know what you own" and just thinking it will go up "doesn't count." As a result of this belief, Lynch figured that a part-time stock picker probably only has time to follow eight to 12 companies. And he warned that "if you don't study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards."

2. Use your edge. 
Lynch strongly believed that everyone has an edge that can allow them to outperform the experts. The key is to utilize your edge by investing in companies or industries that you understand well.
He recommended that individuals identify three to five companies that they could know very well. You could study them; lecture on them; and understand their stories intimately. Ultimately, Lynch felt that ordinary folks need to discover their personal edge, whether it's a profession or hobby or even something else, like being a parent.
When I started out as an investor, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was a stock I felt I had a considerable edge with. My grandfather had worked for the company for over 30 years, and my grandmother held quite a few shares of the company. As a kid, I always talked with her about new products and challenges facing the business. When I first began buying stocks, I always felt extremely comfortable having P&G in my portfolio. Each of us probably knows a company or two like that, and we must use that edge to our advantage.

3. Be patient. 
Being patient and investing for the long term should be the simplest investing lesson of all. Sadly, it's one of those things that is easier said than done. In 1960, the average holding period for a stock was eight years; nowadays, it's just four months.
Lynch often said that he had no idea what the market would do in one or two years. But he was confident about what stocks would do 10, 20, or 30 years from now. He truly believed that time was on the side of the retail investor, and that's why he was an enthusiastic proponent of long-term investing.
And yes, he was aware of some long time frames where the market didn't do well. In an interview with Frontline, he referred to the period from 1966 to 1982 when the market was flat for the most part. But Lynch noted that you'd have still received dividends from your stocks. He also felt that corporate profits tend to trend upward, and that investors would eventually be rewarded for that.
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) is perhaps a good illustration of a stock that will outperform today's market. Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has been more or less flat. Going forward, however, McDonald's -- with its growing dividend and overseas expansion -- is likely to perform very well for long-term investors. 
Similarly, I'd be very surprised if ExxonMobil(NYSE: XOM) -- with its growing dividend and rock-solid balance sheet -- didn't do well over the next decade regardless of the performance of the overall market.
Lynch believed that it "pays to be patient, and to own successful companies." He understood that there are times when there doesn't appear to be a correlation between a company's operations and its stock price. Lynch also knew, however, that "in the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This … is the key to making money."

Simple is as simple does
Peter Lynch once said, "The simpler it is, the better I like it." In a world of faster trading and ever-increasing flows of information, keeping it simple might be the ultimate edge for the ordinary investor. Always remember, though, that simple doesn't necessarily mean easy. I know I have to work a lot harder on all three of those "simple" lessons mentioned above.

18.9.12

Profit-Taking after QE3 Rally, 18 Sept 2012

If you are planning to get into the stock markets thinking that there is money to be made, you are 50% right and 50% wrong.

"WHat do you think by That!!?" you exclaimed...

Easy Peasy... When i say you are 50% right... I mean the markets will end much higher than now at Dec 2012 and patient value investors will be rewarded!

When i say you are 50% wrong... You will see red or have your stocks get stuck in the next couple of days because of the 2 charts below:




After the QE3 Effect, majority indexes are showing a turn-around as news focus on the "Bad side" again..

And taking the top 20 volume stocks as a yardstick, many stocks have fallen off their intra-day highs; signifying profit-taking and sellers > buyers.

Thus, if you are a short-term trader, i suggest you lock in your gains now :D

Hope you like my post and can do me a favour by "Like"-ing my facebook page at www.facebook.com/kissinvesting. Thanks & HUAT AH!


13.9.12

Sarin Tech 13/09/2012


With all the excitement going on for the TOP 20 volume, a "fallen phoenix" appears to be reaching a pivot point now..

I have taken a look at their financials and its all positive!
[High Sales gain, High Net Profit Margin, Niche market providing the diamond manufacturing sets]

I shall stay on the sideline first and watch carefully on whether it will reach a consolidation before picking up some of them.

6.9.12

21 Ways Rich People Think Differently from the Poor or Average

This is a very good article worth reading, and hope to inspire all of you out there! :)

World's richest woman Gina Rinehart is enduring a media firestorm over an article in which she takes the "jealous" middle class to task for "drinking, or smoking and socializing" rather than working to earn their own fortune. 

What if she has a point? 

Steve Siebold, author of "How Rich People Think," spent nearly three decades interviewing millionaires around the world to find out what separates them from everyone else. 

It had little to do with money itself, he told Business Insider. It was about their mentality.

"[The middle class] tells people to be happy with what they have," he said. "And on the whole, most people are steeped in fear when it comes to money."

Flickr / C. Pajunen1. Average people think MONEY is the root of all evil. Rich people believe POVERTY is the root of all evil.

"The average person has been brainwashed to believe rich people are lucky or dishonest," Siebold writes.

That's why there's a certain shame that comes along with "getting rich" in lower-income communities.

"The world class knows that while having money doesn't guarantee happiness, it does make your life easier and more enjoyable." 

2. Average people think selfishness is a vice. Rich people think selfishness is a virtue.

"The rich go out there and try to make themselves happy. They don't try to pretend to save the world," Siebold told Business Insider. 

The problem is that middle class people see that as a negative––and it's keeping them poor, he writes.

"If you're not taking care of you, you're not in a position to help anyone else. You can't give what you don't have."

Getty Images3. Average people have a lottery mentality. Rich people have an action mentality.

"While the masses are waiting to pick the right numbers and praying for prosperity, the great ones are solving problems," Siebold writes.

"The hero [middle class people] are waiting for may be God, government, their boss or their spouse. It's the average person's level of thinking that breeds this approach to life and living while the clock keeps ticking away." 

4. Average people think the road to riches is paved with formal education. Rich people believe in acquiring specific knowledge.

"Many world-class performers have little formal education, and have amassed their wealth through the acquisition and subsequent sale of specific knowledge," he writes. 

"Meanwhile, the masses are convinced that master's degrees and doctorates are the way to wealth, mostly because they are trapped in the linear line of thought that holds them back from higher levels of consciousness...The wealthy aren't interested in the means, only the end."

I Love Lucy screencap5. Average people long for the good old days. Rich people dream of the future.

"Self-made millionaires get rich because they're willing to bet on themselves and project their dreams, goals and ideas into an unknown future," Siebold writes. 

"People who believe their best days are behind them rarely get rich, and often struggle with unhappiness and depression."

6. Average people see money through the eyes of emotion. Rich people think about money logically.

"An ordinarily smart, well-educated and otherwise successful person can be instantly transformed into a fear-based, scarcity driven thinker whose greatest financial aspiration is to retire comfortably," he writes.

"The world class sees money for what it is and what it's not, through the eyes of logic. The great ones know money is a critical tool that presents options and opportunities." 

7. Average people earn money doing things they don't love. Rich people follow their passion.

"To the average person, it looks like the rich are working all the time," Siebold says. "But one of the smartest strategies of the world class is doing what they love and finding a way to get paid for it."

On the other hand, middle class take jobs they don't enjoy "because they need the money and they've been trained in school and conditioned by society to live in a linear thinking world that equates earning money with physical or mental effort." 

8. Average people set low expectations so they're never disappointed. Rich people are up for the challenge.

"Psychologists and other mental health experts often advise people to set low expectations for their life to ensure they are not disappointed," Siebold writes.

"No one would ever strike it rich and live their dreams without huge expectations." 

BarackObamadotcom via YouTube9. Average people believe you have to DO something to get rich. Rich people believe you have to BE something to get rich.

"That's why people like Donald Trump go from millionaire to nine billion dollars in debt and come back richer than ever," he writes. 

"While the masses are fixated on the doing and the immediate results of their actions, the great ones are learning and growing from every experience, whether it's a success or a failure, knowing their true reward is becoming a human success machine that eventually produces outstanding results."

10. Average people believe you need money to make money. Rich people use other people's money.

Linear thought might tell people to make money in order to earn more, but Siebold says the rich aren't afraid to fund their future from other people's pockets.

"Rich people know not being solvent enough to personally afford something is not relevant. The real question is, 'Is this worth buying, investing in, or pursuing?'" he writes. 

11. Average people believe the markets are driven by logic and strategy. Rich people know they're driven by emotion and greed.

Investing successfully in the stock market isn't just about a fancy math formula.

"The rich know that the primary emotions that drive financial markets are fear and greed, and they factor this into all trades and trends they observe," Siebold writes.

"This knowledge of human nature and its overlapping impact on trading give them strategic advantage in building greater wealth through leverage."

12. Average people live beyond their means. Rich people live below theirs.

"Here's how to live below your means and tap into the secret wealthy people have used for centuries: Get rich so you can afford to," he writes.  

"The rich live below their means, not because they're so savvy, but because they make so much money that they can afford to live like royalty while still having a king's ransom socked away for the future." 

richkidsofinstagram.tumblr.com13. Average people teach their children how to survive. Rich people teach their kids to get rich.

Rich parents teach their kids from an early age about the world of "haves" and "have-nots," Siebold says. Even he admits many people have argued that he's supporting the idea of elitism. 

He disagrees.

"[People] say parents are teaching their kids to look down on the masses because they're poor. This isn't true," he writes. "What they're teaching their kids is to see the world through the eyes of objective reality––the way society really is." 

If children understand wealth early on, they'll be more likely to strive for it later in life.

14. Average people let money stress them out. Rich people find peace of mind in wealth.

The reason wealthy people earn more wealth is that they're not afraid to admit that money can solve most problems, Siebold says.

"[The middle class] sees money as a never-ending necessary evil that must be endured as part of life. The world class sees money as the great liberator, and with enough of it, they are able to purchase financial peace of mind."

Kim Bhasin / Business Insider15. Average people would rather be entertained than educated. Rich people would rather be educated than entertained.

While the rich don't put much stock in furthering wealth through formal education, they appreciate the power of learning long after college is over, Siebold says.

"Walk into a wealthy person's home and one of the first things you'll see is an extensive library of books they've used to educate themselves on how to become more successful," he writes.

"The middle class reads novels, tabloids and entertainment magazines." 

16. Average people think rich people are snobs. Rich people just want to surround themselves with like-minded people.

The negative money mentality poisoning the middle class is what keeps the rich hanging out with the rich, he says.

"[Rich people] can't afford the messages of doom and gloom," he writes. "This is often misinterpreted by the masses as snobbery.

Labeling the world class as snobs is another way the middle class finds to feel better bout themselves and their chosen path of mediocrity."

Flickr / Wei Tchou17. Average people focus on saving. Rich people focus on earning.

Siebold theorizes that the wealthy focus on what they'll gain by taking risks, rather than how to save what they have.

"The masses are so focused on clipping coupons and living frugally they miss major opportunities," he writes.

"Even in the midst of a cash flow crisis, the rich reject the nickle and dime thinking of the masses. They are the masters of focusing their mental energy where it belongs: on the big money." 

18. Average people play it safe with money. Rich people know when to take risks.

"Leverage is the watchword of the rich," Siebold writes. 

"Every investor loses money on occasion, but the world class knows no matter what happens, they will aways be able to earn more." 

Flickr / Ibrahim Iujaz19. Average people love to be comfortable. Rich people find comfort in uncertainty.

For the most part, it takes guts to take the risks necessary to make it as a millionaire––a challenge most middle class thinkers aren't comfortable living with.

"Physical, psychological, and emotional comfort is the primary goal of the middle class mindset," Siebold writes.

World class thinkers learn early on that becoming a millionaire isn't easy and the need for comfort can be devastating. They learn to be comfortable while operating in a state of ongoing uncertainty."

20. Average people never make the connection between money and health. Rich people know money can save your life.

While the middle class squabbles over the virtues of Obamacare and their company's health plan, the super wealthy are enrolled in a super elite "boutique medical care" association, Siebold says.

"They pay a substantial yearly membership fee that guarantees them 24-hour access to a private physician who only serves a small group of members," he writes.

"Some wealthy neighborhoods have implemented this strategy and even require the physician to live in the neighborhood."

Getty Images21. Average people believe they must choose between a great family and being rich. Rich people know you can have it all.

The idea the wealth must come at the expense of family time is nothing but a "cop-out", Siebold says.

"The masses have been brainwashed to believe it's an either/or equation," he writes. "The rich know you can have anything you want if you approach the challenge with a mindset rooted in love and abundance." 

From Steve Siebold, author of "How Rich People Think."